— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
12¢
eps
6¢
hres
4¢
wn2
4¢
nbm
3¢
icon
2¢
ndfd
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F30¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,786 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.698 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-01T07:42:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape