KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 05 · 04:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.9¢Risks 1.73u

ICONNO 93.1¢Risks 23.28u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.28u · ICON −23.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T07:42:57+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	6.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	6.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	6.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	6.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	6.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	37.9%	17.9%	5.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	37.9%	17.9%	5.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	37.9%	17.9%	5.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	35.9%	17.9%	5.5%	18.4%	—
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	5.5%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T15:18:16+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	5.5%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	5.5%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	5.5%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	4.4%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	4.4%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	36.0%	17.9%	4.4%	18.5%	—
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	34.6%	17.9%	4.4%	19.8%	—
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	34.6%	17.9%	4.4%	19.8%	—
2026-10-01T21:19:31+00:00	34.6%	17.9%	4.4%	19.8%	—
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	34.6%	17.9%	4.4%	19.8%	—
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	34.6%	17.9%	4.4%	19.8%	—
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	34.6%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	34.6%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	34.6%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T03:21:00+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	4.1%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	30.8%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	25.5%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	25.5%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	25.5%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	25.5%	17.2%	21.8%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	25.5%	17.2%	21.8%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	25.5%	11.3%	9.7%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	25.5%	11.3%	9.7%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	25.5%	11.3%	9.7%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	29.9%	11.3%	9.7%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	29.9%	11.3%	9.7%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	9.9%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	9.9%	33.6%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	29.9%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	3.7%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	3.7%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	3.7%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	3.7%	10.9%	12.4%	33.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	3.7%	10.9%	12.4%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	3.7%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	3.7%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	3.7%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T03:33:14+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	7.5%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	9.9%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	9.9%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	9.9%	8.6%	14.8%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	28.4%	10.5%	9.9%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	28.4%	10.5%	9.9%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	28.4%	10.5%	9.9%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	28.4%	10.5%	9.9%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	28.4%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	28.4%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	28.4%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	28.4%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	7.4%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	23.2%	2.6%	8.1%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	6.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	7.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	7.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	23.2%	2.3%	7.7%	20.8%	1.6%
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	22.4%	4.9%	4.3%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	22.4%	4.9%	4.3%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	22.4%	4.9%	4.3%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	22.4%	4.9%	4.3%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	14.0%	5.2%	4.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	14.0%	5.2%	4.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	4.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	4.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	2.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	2.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	2.4%	18.9%	2.6%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	2.4%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	2.4%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	2.4%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	2.4%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	14.4%	4.9%	2.4%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	14.4%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	14.4%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	14.4%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	11.7%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	11.7%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	11.7%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	11.7%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	11.7%	5.8%	4.1%	4.5%	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	12%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	70.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	70.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	66.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗