— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
99¢
aifs
96¢
icon
94¢
hres
94¢
eps
91¢
nbm
85¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F27¢
76–77°F20¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,836 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.697 vs climatology 8.979.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape