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KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
96%
ICON
94%
HRES
94%
EPS
91%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 95.0¢Risks 23.74u
VS
EPSNO 5.0¢Risks 1.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.26u · EPS −1.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00ICON: 86.9% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00ICON: 86.9% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00ICON: 86.9% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00ICON: 86.9% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00ICON: 86.9% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00ICON: 94.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0010-06 04:0710-06 09:2410-06 14:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:0096.4%74.2%97.4%93.8%86.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:0096.4%74.2%97.4%93.8%86.9%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:0096.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%86.9%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:0096.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%86.9%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:0096.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%86.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:0097.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:0097.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:0097.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:0097.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:0097.4%74.2%98.2%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:0097.4%91.1%98.9%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:0097.4%91.1%98.9%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:0097.4%91.1%98.9%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:0096.4%91.1%98.9%93.8%94.1%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0096.4%91.0%98.9%93.8%94.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%73.2°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%73.3°F4.3°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
ICON94%71.6°F3.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
IFS HRES94%73.2°F5.0°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble91%71.8°F4.7°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
National Blend85%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-06 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗