daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Fri Oct 9

Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 9

59¢

american -146 · decimal 1.68

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 69°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		77¢
icon		70¢
wn2		69¢
eps		57¢
ndfd		54¢
aifs		45¢
nbm		36¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

66–67°F1¢

68–69°F5¢

70–71°F14¢

72–73°F24¢

74–75°F26¢

76–77°F18¢

78–79°F8¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,836 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.697 vs climatology 8.979.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape