KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 04 · 15:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

70%

69%

57%

45%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

AIFSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.15u · AIFS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	48.6%	57.1%	41.1%	29.6%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	48.6%	57.1%	41.1%	29.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	48.6%	57.1%	41.1%	29.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	69.2%	57.1%	41.1%	29.6%	—
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	47.3%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	47.3%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	47.3%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	56.2%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	56.2%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	56.2%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	72.7%	34.5%	56.2%	56.0%	63.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	78.6%	34.5%	56.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	78.6%	34.5%	56.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	78.6%	34.5%	56.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	78.6%	34.5%	56.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	78.6%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	78.0%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	78.0%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	78.0%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	62.2%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	74.0%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	74.0%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	81.2%	32.9%	74.0%	60.2%	13.2%
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	76.8%	32.9%	74.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	76.8%	32.9%	74.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	76.8%	32.9%	74.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	76.8%	32.9%	74.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	76.8%	32.9%	74.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	76.8%	57.4%	69.1%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	76.8%	57.4%	69.1%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	76.8%	57.4%	69.1%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	76.8%	57.4%	69.1%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	45.1%	57.4%	69.0%	76.6%	70.3%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	45.1%	57.4%	69.0%	76.6%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	71.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	67.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	67.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 02 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗