— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
92¢
wn2
68¢
nbm
52¢
aifs
49¢
eps
39¢
icon
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F20¢
88–89°F12¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,688 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape