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KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 03 · 10:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
92%
WN2
68%
AIFS
49%
EPS
39%
ICON
6%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 49.1¢Risks 49.05u
VS
ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.95u · ICON −50.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:0010-03 08:0410-03 09:3510-03 10:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:0048.6%38.8%68.1%92.4%5.7%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:0048.6%38.8%68.1%92.4%5.7%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:0048.6%38.8%68.1%92.4%5.7%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:0048.6%38.8%68.1%92.4%5.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES92%82.6°F6.3°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%76.0°F5.3°F2026-10-02 18:00Pending
National Blend52%74.0°F8.6°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%73.3°F5.6°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%71.4°F7.4°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
ICON6%58.1°F9.7°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗