— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
aifs
99¢
icon
99¢
eps
95¢
hres
92¢
nbm
84¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F7¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,737 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape