KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

95%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 96.0¢Risks 24.01u

HRESNO 3.9¢Risks 0.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.99u · HRES −0.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	96.3%	43.1%	89.7%	86.6%	0.3%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	96.3%	43.1%	89.7%	86.6%	0.3%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	96.3%	43.1%	73.3%	86.6%	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	96.3%	43.1%	73.3%	86.6%	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	96.3%	43.1%	73.3%	86.6%	0.3%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	98.0%	43.1%	73.3%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	98.0%	43.1%	73.3%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	98.0%	43.1%	73.3%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	98.0%	43.1%	73.3%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	98.0%	43.1%	73.3%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	98.0%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	98.0%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	98.0%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	97.2%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	97.2%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	97.2%	44.8%	90.5%	87.8%	0.1%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	98.5%	69.4%	97.6%	92.2%	96.9%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	98.5%	69.4%	97.6%	92.2%	96.9%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	98.5%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	96.9%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	98.5%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	96.9%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	98.5%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	96.9%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	98.9%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	98.9%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	98.9%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	98.9%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	98.9%	69.4%	97.3%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	98.9%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	98.9%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	98.9%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.5%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	99.3%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	95.4%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	99.7%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	99.7%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	99.7%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	99.7%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	99.7%	70.0%	99.6%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	99.7%	94.7%	99.9%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	99.7%	94.7%	99.9%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	99.7%	94.7%	99.9%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	99.3%	94.7%	99.9%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	99.3%	94.6%	99.9%	92.2%	98.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	85.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	99%	85.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	80.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 04 · 15:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗