— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
96¢
icon
94¢
wn2
93¢
hres
86¢
eps
56¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F21¢
84–85°F21¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,688 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape