KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 05 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

86%

56%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

EPSNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · EPS −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	94.7%	21.2%	59.7%	72.0%	1.0%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	94.7%	21.2%	67.3%	72.0%	1.0%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	94.7%	21.2%	67.3%	72.0%	1.0%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	94.7%	21.2%	67.3%	72.0%	1.0%
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	93.4%	21.2%	67.3%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	93.4%	21.2%	67.3%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	93.4%	21.2%	67.3%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	93.4%	21.2%	67.3%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	93.4%	21.2%	67.3%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	93.4%	27.6%	79.5%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	93.4%	27.6%	79.5%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	93.4%	27.6%	79.5%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	93.4%	27.6%	79.5%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	92.1%	27.7%	79.4%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	92.1%	27.3%	79.4%	78.9%	0.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	93.7%	28.6%	80.6%	80.6%	0.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	93.7%	28.6%	80.6%	80.6%	0.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	93.7%	28.6%	80.6%	80.6%	0.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	93.7%	28.6%	80.6%	80.6%	0.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	93.7%	28.6%	80.6%	80.6%	0.1%
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	96.1%	28.6%	80.6%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	96.1%	28.6%	80.6%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	96.1%	28.6%	80.6%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	96.1%	28.6%	80.6%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	96.1%	28.6%	80.6%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	96.1%	56.5%	93.2%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	96.1%	56.5%	93.2%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	96.1%	56.5%	93.2%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	96.1%	56.5%	93.2%	85.7%	93.3%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	96.1%	56.5%	93.1%	85.8%	93.5%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	96.1%	55.8%	93.1%	85.8%	93.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
ICON	94%	85.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	77.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	74.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗