— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
75¢
rrfs
70¢
aifs
44¢
now
22¢
hres
12¢
nbm
9¢
icon
9¢
wn2
6¢
eps
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F17¢
88–89°F10¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,688 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape