KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

EPSNO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.00u · EPS −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	19.1%	0.0%	2.2%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	19.1%	0.0%	2.2%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	19.1%	0.0%	2.2%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	19.1%	0.0%	2.2%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	19.1%	0.0%	2.2%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.1%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.1%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.1%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.1%	12.1%	23.0%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.2%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.2%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.2%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	4.2%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	19.1%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	23.4%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	13.3%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	15.6%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	32.5%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	32.5%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	32.5%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	21.2%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.7%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T15:29:30+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	14.0%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	7.6%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	7.6%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	21.1%	1.1%	7.6%	12.0%	18.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	27.9%	1.1%	7.6%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	27.9%	1.1%	7.6%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	27.9%	1.1%	7.6%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	27.9%	1.1%	7.6%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	27.9%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	27.9%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	27.9%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	27.9%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	15.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	15.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	15.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	15.2%	14.9%	40.0%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	43.6%	1.2%	15.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	43.6%	1.2%	15.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	43.6%	1.2%	15.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	43.6%	1.2%	15.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	43.6%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	43.6%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	43.6%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	47.2%	0.4%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	47.2%	0.4%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	14.2%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	10.0%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	10.0%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	47.2%	0.3%	10.0%	25.2%	45.9%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	40.9%	0.3%	10.0%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	40.9%	0.3%	10.0%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	40.9%	0.3%	10.0%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	40.9%	0.3%	10.0%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	40.9%	0.3%	10.0%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	40.9%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	40.9%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	40.9%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	7.2%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	13.5%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	13.5%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	42.7%	0.6%	13.5%	12.7%	36.1%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	47.1%	0.6%	13.5%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	47.1%	0.6%	13.5%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	47.1%	0.6%	13.5%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	47.1%	0.6%	13.5%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	47.1%	0.6%	13.5%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	47.1%	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	47.1%	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	47.1%	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	42.3%	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	42.3%	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T15:16:01+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	42.3%	1.6%	9.8%	20.3%	31.6%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	9.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	9.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	9.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	9.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	9.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	44.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	8.8%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	16.7%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	16.7%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	45.2%	1.6%	16.7%	15.8%	32.6%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	45.0%	1.6%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	45.0%	2.9%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	45.0%	2.9%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	42.1%	2.9%	16.7%	19.6%	23.1%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	16.7%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	16.7%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	16.7%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	16.7%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	19.5%	23.1%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	41.1%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	41.1%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	41.1%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	41.1%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:16+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	7.6%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	49.0%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	53.9%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	53.9%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	53.9%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	53.9%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	53.9%	2.7%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	53.9%	2.9%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	53.9%	2.9%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	53.9%	2.9%	16.1%	11.9%	9.5%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	44.8%	2.9%	16.1%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	44.8%	2.9%	16.1%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	16.1%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	16.1%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	44.8%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.6%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	43.5%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.1%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	43.5%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.1%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	43.5%	2.5%	5.8%	11.9%	9.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	89.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	87.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	9%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	85.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗