— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
hres
96¢
wn2
92¢
aifs
89¢
icon
89¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F29¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F6¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,095 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.521 vs climatology 8.918.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape