KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

92%

89%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.6¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 5.4¢Risks 2.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +2.70u · ICON −2.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	0.6%	97.4%	1.8%	36.5%	88.3%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	0.6%	97.4%	4.6%	36.5%	88.3%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	0.6%	97.4%	4.6%	36.5%	88.3%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	0.6%	97.4%	4.6%	36.5%	88.3%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	4.6%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	4.6%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	4.6%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	4.6%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	4.6%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	5.3%	97.1%	8.7%	78.2%	17.2%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	5.3%	97.1%	8.7%	78.2%	17.7%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	5.3%	97.1%	8.7%	78.2%	17.7%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	18.5%	97.1%	8.7%	78.2%	17.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	18.5%	97.1%	8.7%	78.2%	17.7%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	79.6%	100.0%	92.1%	95.7%	89.2%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	79.6%	100.0%	92.1%	95.7%	89.2%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	79.6%	100.0%	92.1%	95.7%	89.2%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	89.3%	100.0%	92.1%	95.7%	89.2%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	89.3%	100.0%	92.1%	95.7%	89.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	71.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	89%	71.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	66.0°F	10.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗