— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
73¢
icon
64¢
nbm
52¢
hres
29¢
wn2
26¢
aifs
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F5¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F24¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,095 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.521 vs climatology 8.918.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE58 · opened 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape