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KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
73%
ICON
64%
HRES
29%
WN2
26%
AIFS
13%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 43.0¢Risks 43.00u
VS
AIFSNO 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.00u · AIFS −57.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 29.1% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:0010-06 20:0110-06 23:4810-07 03:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:008.4%72.7%29.9%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:008.4%72.7%29.9%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:008.4%72.7%29.9%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:008.4%72.7%29.9%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:008.4%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:008.4%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:008.4%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:008.4%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:0012.6%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:0012.6%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:0012.6%73.4%26.5%29.1%64.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble73%65.3°F12.5°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
ICON64%61.0°F9.8°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend52%58.0°F9.8°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS HRES29%54.0°F6.4°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%54.4°F4.9°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
AIFS Single13%51.1°F5.6°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 58°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗