— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
nbm
85¢
hres
67¢
ndfd
59¢
icon
56¢
rrfs
40¢
aifs
25¢
wn2
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F23¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,145 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.52 vs climatology 8.905.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape