KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

67%

56%

25%

22%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

WN2NO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.20u · WN2 −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	32.8%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	32.8%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	32.8%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	24.4%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	24.4%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	9.5%	71.1%	24.4%	55.5%	24.1%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	19.2%	71.1%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	19.2%	75.5%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	19.2%	75.5%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	12.0%	75.5%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	12.0%	75.5%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	12.0%	75.3%	24.4%	79.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	24.9%	100.0%	22.6%	66.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	24.9%	100.0%	22.6%	66.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	24.9%	100.0%	21.6%	66.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	24.9%	100.0%	21.6%	66.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	24.9%	100.0%	21.6%	66.6%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	58.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	59.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗