— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
74¢
hres
60¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
44¢
rrfs
27¢
aifs
14¢
icon
6¢
wn2
4¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F6¢
56–57°F19¢
58–59°F30¢
60–61°F27¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,199 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.519 vs climatology 8.892.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape