KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

60%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

WN2NO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.20u · WN2 −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	25.3%	59.1%	41.2%	63.7%	43.1%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	29.1%	59.1%	41.2%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	29.1%	59.1%	41.2%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	29.1%	59.1%	41.2%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	29.1%	59.1%	41.2%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	29.1%	59.1%	41.2%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	29.1%	59.2%	38.7%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	29.1%	59.2%	38.7%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	29.1%	59.2%	38.7%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	12.0%	59.2%	38.7%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	12.0%	59.2%	38.7%	51.2%	44.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	9.8%	81.1%	2.3%	29.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	9.8%	81.1%	2.3%	29.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	9.8%	81.1%	3.6%	29.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	9.8%	81.1%	3.6%	29.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	9.8%	81.1%	3.6%	29.6%	13.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	8.7%	81.1%	3.6%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	8.7%	81.1%	3.6%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	8.7%	81.1%	3.6%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	8.7%	81.1%	3.6%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	8.7%	81.1%	3.6%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	8.7%	72.6%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	8.7%	72.6%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	8.7%	72.6%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	9.1%	72.6%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	9.1%	72.6%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	9.1%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	12.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	11.3%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	5.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	11.3%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	5.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	11.3%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	5.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	11.3%	72.5%	2.2%	45.7%	5.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	11.3%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	11.3%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	11.3%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	13.9%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	13.9%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	13.9%	74.1%	3.5%	59.5%	5.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	57.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗