— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
89¢
icon
59¢
nbm
53¢
wn2
45¢
hres
24¢
aifs
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F1¢
48–49°F5¢
50–51°F15¢
52–53°F27¢
54–55°F27¢
56–57°F17¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,150 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.893.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE54 · opened 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape