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KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 09 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
ICON
59%
WN2
45%
HRES
24%
AIFS
15%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.0¢Risks 52.05u
VS
AIFSNO 48.0¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.95u · AIFS −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.8% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.8% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.8% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.8% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.8% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 09:2210-09 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:0014.9%89.2%44.8%23.9%58.9%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:0014.9%89.2%44.8%23.9%58.9%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:0014.9%89.2%44.8%23.9%58.9%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:0014.9%89.2%44.8%23.9%58.9%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:0014.9%89.2%44.8%23.9%58.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%63.4°F8.0°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
ICON59%55.7°F9.8°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
National Blend53%54.0°F6.4°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%52.8°F5.3°F2026-10-08 18:00Pending
IFS HRES24%49.0°F6.3°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
AIFS Single15%47.7°F5.6°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 54°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗