— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
95¢
hres
93¢
aifs
88¢
eps
88¢
wn2
81¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F11¢
58–59°F20¢
60–61°F24¢
62–63°F20¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,151 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-11T04:30:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape