KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

88%

88%

81%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 88.0¢Risks 44.00u

WN2NO 12.0¢Risks 6.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.00u · WN2 −6.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T04:30:48+00:00	65.4%	77.9%	56.4%	92.9%	68.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	65.4%	77.9%	75.5%	92.9%	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	65.4%	77.9%	75.5%	92.9%	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	65.4%	77.9%	75.5%	92.9%	68.0%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00	10.2%	77.9%	75.5%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	10.2%	77.9%	75.5%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	10.2%	77.9%	75.5%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	10.2%	77.9%	75.5%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00	10.2%	77.9%	75.5%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	10.2%	68.1%	35.4%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	10.2%	68.1%	35.4%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	10.2%	68.1%	35.4%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	74.6%	68.1%	35.4%	89.1%	68.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	74.0%	67.9%	35.4%	89.2%	68.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	76.6%	91.7%	92.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	76.6%	91.7%	92.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	78.6%	91.7%	92.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	78.6%	91.7%	92.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	78.6%	91.7%	92.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	78.6%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	78.6%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	78.6%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	78.6%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	78.6%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	88.6%	70.4%	81.2%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	88.6%	88.4%	81.2%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	88.6%	88.4%	81.2%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	88.6%	88.4%	81.2%	93.2%	94.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	88.5%	88.2%	81.1%	93.2%	94.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	66.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	65.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	63.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	60.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	58.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗