— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
85¢
aifs
70¢
eps
69¢
hres
64¢
wn2
63¢
ndfd
59¢
hrrr
24¢
icon
18¢
nbm
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F5¢
56–57°F12¢
58–59°F20¢
60–61°F24¢
62–63°F20¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,153 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape