KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

69%

64%

63%

18%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

ICONNO 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.10u · ICON −56.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	65.3%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	65.3%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	65.3%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	67.9%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	67.9%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	78.6%	80.2%	67.9%	87.4%	90.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.9%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.9%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.9%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.9%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	75.6%	80.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	75.6%	81.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	78.1%	81.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	78.1%	81.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	78.1%	81.2%	67.0%	85.1%	95.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00	68.8%	75.9%	52.6%	62.4%	51.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	68.8%	75.9%	56.4%	62.4%	51.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	68.8%	75.9%	56.4%	62.4%	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	68.8%	75.9%	56.4%	62.4%	51.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	68.8%	75.9%	56.4%	62.4%	51.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	60.7%	75.9%	56.4%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	60.7%	75.9%	56.4%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	60.7%	75.9%	56.4%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	60.7%	75.9%	56.4%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:09+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	60.7%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	41.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	60.0%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	60.0%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	60.0%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	60.0%	71.1%	55.1%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	60.0%	75.5%	51.4%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	60.0%	75.5%	51.4%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	60.0%	75.5%	51.4%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	60.0%	75.5%	51.4%	61.5%	22.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	63.8%	75.4%	51.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	51.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	51.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	51.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	63.8%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	61.9%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	17.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	61.9%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	17.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	61.9%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	17.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	61.9%	76.4%	54.1%	62.6%	17.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	61.9%	76.4%	54.1%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	55.5%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	63.4%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	63.4%	63.7%	17.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	70.3%	69.0%	63.4%	63.7%	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	60.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	60.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	59.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	18%	55.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗