— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
66¢
aifs
60¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
53¢
nbm
41¢
icon
40¢
wn2
40¢
rrfs
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F8¢
58–59°F16¢
60–61°F22¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,052 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.892.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape