KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

60%

53%

40%

40%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

WN2NO 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.15u · WN2 −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	71.6%	76.5%	57.8%	80.7%	94.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	71.6%	76.5%	57.8%	80.7%	94.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	71.6%	76.5%	61.6%	80.7%	94.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	71.6%	76.5%	61.6%	80.7%	94.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	71.6%	76.5%	61.6%	80.7%	94.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:30+00:00	61.9%	76.5%	61.6%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	61.9%	76.5%	61.6%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	61.9%	76.5%	61.6%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	61.9%	76.5%	61.6%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	61.9%	76.5%	61.6%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	61.9%	84.4%	46.8%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	61.9%	84.4%	46.8%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	61.9%	84.4%	46.8%	68.4%	89.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	56.9%	84.4%	46.8%	68.4%	89.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	56.9%	84.4%	46.8%	68.4%	89.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	61.9%	67.6%	37.2%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	61.9%	67.6%	42.9%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	61.9%	67.6%	42.9%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	61.9%	67.6%	42.9%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	42.9%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	42.9%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	42.9%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	42.9%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	42.9%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	52.9%	67.6%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	52.9%	67.4%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	52.9%	67.4%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	59.7%	67.4%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	59.7%	67.0%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	59.7%	65.9%	39.8%	52.9%	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	60.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	59.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	58.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗