— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
99¢
wn2
85¢
aifs
84¢
ndfd
59¢
eps
48¢
hres
46¢
nbm
25¢
icon
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,102 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.884.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape