KMSP / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

48%

46%

23%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	75.7%	56.5%	58.8%	85.1%	80.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	75.7%	56.5%	58.8%	85.1%	80.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	75.7%	56.5%	52.4%	85.1%	80.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	75.7%	56.5%	52.4%	85.1%	80.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	75.7%	56.5%	52.4%	85.1%	80.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	52.4%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	52.4%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	52.4%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	52.4%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	52.4%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	52.3%	56.5%	59.6%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	52.3%	62.1%	59.6%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	52.3%	62.1%	59.6%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	81.2%	62.1%	59.6%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	81.2%	62.0%	59.5%	87.7%	77.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:01+00:00	84.5%	47.7%	70.9%	45.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	84.5%	47.7%	84.9%	45.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	84.5%	47.7%	84.9%	45.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	84.5%	47.7%	84.9%	45.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	84.5%	47.7%	84.9%	45.7%	23.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗