— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
93¢
aifs
92¢
wn2
89¢
hres
72¢
icon
60¢
eps
57¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape