KMSP / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

92%

72%

62%

60%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

ICONNO 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.90u · ICON −23.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:45+00:00	86.7%	54.7%	68.6%	66.3%	43.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	86.7%	54.7%	75.8%	66.3%	43.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.7%	54.7%	75.8%	66.3%	43.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.7%	54.7%	75.8%	66.3%	43.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00	86.9%	54.7%	75.8%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	86.9%	54.7%	75.8%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	86.9%	54.7%	75.8%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	86.9%	54.7%	75.8%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	86.9%	54.7%	75.8%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	86.9%	59.2%	65.0%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	86.9%	59.2%	65.0%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	86.9%	59.2%	65.0%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	84.8%	59.2%	65.0%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	84.8%	59.1%	65.0%	65.6%	45.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	89.2%	55.1%	74.3%	54.5%	39.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	89.2%	55.1%	87.6%	54.5%	39.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	89.2%	55.1%	87.6%	54.5%	39.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	89.2%	55.1%	87.6%	54.5%	39.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	89.2%	55.1%	87.6%	54.5%	39.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	91.2%	55.1%	87.6%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	91.2%	55.1%	87.6%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	91.2%	55.1%	87.6%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	91.2%	55.1%	87.6%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	91.2%	55.1%	87.6%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	91.2%	57.3%	87.1%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	91.2%	57.3%	87.1%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	91.2%	57.3%	87.1%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	86.1%	57.2%	87.1%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	86.1%	57.2%	87.1%	65.2%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	90.8%	57.1%	80.8%	57.7%	46.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	90.8%	57.1%	89.0%	57.7%	46.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	90.8%	57.1%	89.0%	57.7%	46.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	90.8%	57.1%	89.0%	57.7%	46.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	92.2%	57.1%	89.0%	72.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	92.2%	57.1%	89.0%	72.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	92.2%	57.1%	89.0%	72.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	92.2%	57.1%	89.0%	72.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	92.2%	57.1%	89.0%	72.3%	60.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	92.2%	62.2%	91.5%	72.3%	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗