daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

74¢

american -281 · decimal 1.36

on the tape

71°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		91¢
aifs		91¢
icon		74¢
hres		66¢
ndfd		55¢
nbm		55¢
eps		39¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F3¢

68–69°F9¢

70–71°F18¢

72–73°F25¢

74–75°F23¢

76–77°F14¢

78–79°F6¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape