KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

74%

66%

48%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.85u · EPS −28.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:45+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	63.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	63.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	63.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	63.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	63.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:21+00:00	84.5%	40.4%	57.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	84.5%	37.3%	57.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	84.5%	37.3%	57.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	58.5%	37.3%	57.1%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	57.0%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	57.0%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	57.0%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	56.3%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	56.3%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	56.3%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	58.3%	37.3%	56.3%	55.6%	18.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	79.5%	37.3%	56.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:29+00:00	79.5%	37.3%	56.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	79.5%	37.3%	56.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	79.5%	37.3%	56.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	79.5%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	79.5%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	79.5%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:10+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	69.6%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	68.8%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	75.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	77.7%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	77.7%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	77.7%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	77.7%	33.9%	65.3%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	65.0%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	65.0%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	65.0%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	65.0%	48.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	67.1%	24.8%	65.0%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	65.0%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	65.0%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	65.0%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	67.1%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	71.0%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	71.0%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	71.0%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	71.0%	26.4%	53.4%	53.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	71.0%	26.4%	53.4%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	71.0%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	71.0%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	71.0%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	55.1%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	56.0%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	56.0%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	62.3%	21.7%	56.0%	55.4%	45.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:29+00:00	83.3%	21.7%	56.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	83.3%	21.7%	56.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	83.3%	21.7%	56.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	83.3%	21.7%	56.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	83.3%	21.7%	56.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	87.9%	33.3%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	87.9%	33.3%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:43+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	51.0%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	80.3%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	80.3%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	87.9%	33.7%	80.3%	52.8%	53.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	86.2%	33.7%	80.3%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	86.2%	33.7%	80.3%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	86.2%	33.7%	80.3%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	86.2%	33.7%	80.3%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	86.2%	33.7%	80.3%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	86.2%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	86.2%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	86.2%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:02+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	77.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	83.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	83.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	83.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	81.8%	31.8%	83.5%	56.9%	22.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	83.7%	31.8%	83.5%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	83.7%	31.8%	83.5%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	83.7%	31.8%	83.5%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	83.7%	31.8%	83.5%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	83.7%	31.8%	83.5%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	83.7%	38.8%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:27+00:00	83.7%	38.8%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	83.7%	38.8%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	85.2%	38.8%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	85.2%	38.8%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	78.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	74.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	74.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	74.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	85.2%	37.7%	74.9%	56.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	89.7%	37.7%	74.9%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	89.7%	37.7%	74.9%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	89.7%	37.7%	74.9%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	89.7%	37.7%	74.9%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	88.1%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	91.4%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	91.4%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	89.7%	38.8%	91.4%	61.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00	91.3%	38.8%	91.4%	65.7%	74.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	91.3%	38.8%	91.4%	65.7%	74.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	91.3%	38.8%	91.4%	65.7%	74.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	91.3%	38.8%	91.4%	65.7%	74.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	91.3%	38.8%	91.4%	65.7%	74.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:53+00:00	91.3%	47.8%	94.5%	65.7%	74.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	75.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	76.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	73.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	72.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗