— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
aifs
48¢
nbm
47¢
hres
43¢
wn2
38¢
icon
34¢
eps
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F25¢
74–75°F23¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape