KMSP / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

38%

34%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

EPSNO 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.95u · EPS −71.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	52.9%	10.9%	48.3%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	52.9%	10.8%	48.3%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	52.9%	10.8%	48.3%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	52.9%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	52.9%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	52.9%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	29.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	57.3%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	34.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	57.3%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	57.3%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	57.3%	10.8%	36.6%	41.6%	34.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	57.3%	10.8%	36.6%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	57.3%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	57.3%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	57.3%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	47.8%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	47.8%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	47.8%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	47.8%	8.3%	38.2%	43.4%	34.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	72.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	67.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗