— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
35¢
icon
28¢
wn2
19¢
eps
15¢
hres
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F28¢
76–77°F25¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape