KMSY / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

28%

19%

15%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

HRESNO 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +79.75u · HRES −79.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	65.3%	48.3%	79.6%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	65.3%	66.6%	79.6%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	65.3%	66.6%	79.6%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	61.9%	66.6%	79.6%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	61.9%	66.6%	79.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:02+00:00	61.9%	66.6%	79.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	61.9%	67.1%	79.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	61.9%	67.1%	68.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	61.9%	67.1%	68.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	61.9%	67.1%	68.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	61.9%	67.1%	68.5%	80.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	68.5%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	68.5%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	68.5%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	68.5%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	64.6%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	67.2%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	67.2%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	67.2%	67.1%	75.9%	64.7%	69.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	41.8%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	80.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	66.1%	32.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	66.1%	9.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	43.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	43.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	43.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	36.7%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	24.0%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	24.0%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	36.6%	15.0%	24.0%	9.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	24.0%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	24.0%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	24.0%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	24.0%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	24.0%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	31.5%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	35.1%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	35.1%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	35.1%	15.0%	19.1%	5.4%	27.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	76.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	76.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗