daily prop · New Orleans, LA · Southeast · settles Fri Oct 23

New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Oct 23

5¢

american +2051 · decimal 21.51

on the tape

86°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		18¢
icon		15¢
aifs		14¢
wn2		11¢
hres		8¢
nbm		6¢
eps		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F1¢

76–77°F5¢

78–79°F17¢

80–81°F30¢

82–83°F28¢

84–85°F14¢

86–87°F4¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape