KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

13%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	23.6%	3.2%	22.7%	11.5%	24.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.8%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.8%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.8%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.8%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	61.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	61.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	61.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	11.6%	61.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	23.8%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	22.2%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	24.6%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	24.6%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	26.0%	3.2%	24.6%	21.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	24.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	24.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	24.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	24.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	24.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	20.3%	3.6%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	20.3%	3.6%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	20.3%	3.6%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	18.3%	3.6%	19.6%	22.3%	56.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	18.3%	3.6%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	19.6%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	15.8%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	15.8%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	15.8%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	15.8%	22.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	15.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	15.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	15.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	15.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	14.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	16.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	16.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	16.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	16.8%	15.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	10.5%	3.2%	16.8%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	10.5%	3.2%	16.8%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	10.5%	3.2%	16.8%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	10.5%	3.2%	16.8%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	10.5%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	10.5%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	10.5%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	10.5%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	10.2%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	10.2%	1.2%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	10.2%	0.9%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	10.2%	0.9%	9.9%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	10.2%	0.9%	10.7%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	10.2%	0.9%	10.7%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.2%	0.9%	10.7%	14.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.7%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.7%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.7%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.7%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.7%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	8.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	10.3%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	14.8%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	14.8%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	14.8%	11.7%	34.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	14.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	14.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	14.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	14.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	14.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	11.4%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	11.4%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	12.0%	0.9%	11.4%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	9.6%	0.9%	11.4%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	9.5%	0.9%	11.3%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	11.3%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	11.3%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	11.3%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	9.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	9.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	9.8%	8.7%	28.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	9.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	9.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	9.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	9.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	9.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	10.3%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	11.8%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	13.5%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	14.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	13.5%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	14.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	13.5%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	14.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	13.5%	0.8%	14.7%	6.4%	14.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	13.5%	2.2%	10.6%	7.6%	14.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	13.5%	2.2%	10.6%	7.6%	14.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	13.5%	2.2%	10.6%	7.6%	14.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	13.5%	2.2%	10.6%	7.6%	14.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	13.4%	2.2%	10.6%	7.6%	14.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	15%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	80.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	81.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗