— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
57¢
nbm
55¢
wn2
36¢
aifs
35¢
hres
26¢
eps
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F20¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape