KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

36%

35%

26%

17%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.8¢Risks 36.75u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.25u · EPS −63.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	26.0%	26.4%	42.8%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	26.0%	26.4%	42.8%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	26.0%	26.4%	42.8%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	26.0%	26.4%	42.8%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	26.0%	26.4%	42.8%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	26.0%	18.8%	40.0%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	26.0%	18.8%	40.0%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	26.0%	18.8%	40.0%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	27.1%	18.8%	40.0%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	27.1%	18.8%	39.9%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.9%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.9%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.9%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.2%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.2%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	27.1%	16.8%	39.2%	23.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	39.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	39.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	39.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	39.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	39.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	31.3%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	35.1%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	35.1%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	35.1%	16.8%	36.2%	26.2%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	81.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	77.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗