— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
aifs
35¢
wn2
33¢
hres
22¢
icon
17¢
eps
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F21¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261027-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape