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KMSY / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
35%
WN2
33%
HRES
22%
ICON
17%
EPS
5%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 20.1¢Risks 20.15u
VS
EPSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +79.85u · EPS −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0035.1%5.2%33.3%22.3%17.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0035.1%5.2%33.3%22.3%17.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0035.1%5.2%33.3%22.3%17.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0035.1%5.2%33.3%22.3%17.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single35%79.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%79.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%76.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON17%72.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%77.6°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗