— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
44¢
wn2
41¢
aifs
40¢
icon
30¢
hres
15¢
eps
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape