KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

40%

30%

15%

10%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 25.6¢Risks 25.60u

EPSNO 74.4¢Risks 74.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +74.40u · EPS −74.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:43+00:00	52.1%	17.9%	46.1%	46.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	52.1%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	52.1%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	52.1%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	37.6%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	37.6%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	37.6%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	37.6%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	37.6%	17.9%	42.2%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	37.6%	10.2%	36.6%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	37.6%	10.2%	36.6%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	37.6%	10.2%	36.6%	46.3%	46.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	41.2%	10.2%	36.6%	19.0%	46.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	41.2%	10.3%	36.6%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	36.6%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	36.6%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	36.6%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	41.2%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	45.7%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	42.7%	7.3%	56.0%	19.0%	34.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	50.0%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	50.0%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	24.5%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	38.1%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	39.6%	9.9%	41.3%	15.0%	30.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	82.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	30%	80.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	77.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	79.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗