— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
36¢
wn2
30¢
icon
24¢
hres
16¢
eps
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape