KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

30%

24%

16%

11%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

EPSNO 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.40u · EPS −76.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:11+00:00	39.0%	18.8%	47.7%	24.8%	39.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	39.0%	18.8%	49.2%	24.8%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	39.0%	18.8%	49.2%	24.8%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	39.0%	18.8%	49.2%	24.8%	39.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	41.2%	18.8%	49.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	41.2%	18.8%	49.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	41.2%	18.8%	49.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	41.2%	18.8%	49.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	41.2%	18.8%	49.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	41.2%	16.6%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	41.2%	16.6%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	41.2%	16.6%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	33.5%	16.6%	42.4%	30.0%	28.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	33.5%	16.7%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	42.4%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	34.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	34.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	34.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	33.5%	10.9%	34.2%	29.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	34.2%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	34.2%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	34.2%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	34.2%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	31.5%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	36.3%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	36.3%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	36.3%	10.9%	29.7%	15.9%	24.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	24%	78.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	76.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	78.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗